François Bayrou, High Commissioner for Planning and a central figure in President Macron’s political circle, is heading into turbulent weeks that could reshape his future.
On April 15, he is set to launch a major conference on public finances aimed at preparing for the 2026 budget. The goal? To bring together elected officials, local authorities, and social partners under one roof with a shared set of facts.
But early reactions suggest this effort may not inspire confidence. “In any case, inaction is second nature to François Bayrou,” a Horizons party executive told Le Parisien, skeptical that this initiative will be anything more than a symbolic gesture.
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The same source warned, “It’s going to be horribly complicated for 2026; we’ve already burned through our guns this year. There are few options left, and I think we’re heading towards an increase in taxes.”
The mood soured further when Economy Minister Eric Lombard hinted that tax hikes might be inevitable—fueling dissent within Macron’s own camp and sparking grumbles from allies like LR and Horizons.
LR MP Pierre Cordier didn’t mince words after a tense session in the Assembly: “There was a central bloc. Tonight, there is a before, there is an after.”
The Bétharram Scandal and François Bayrou
If the public finance debate is a policy test, the Bétharram affair may prove to be a personal reckoning for Bayrou. At the heart of this controversy is a sensitive and potentially explosive question: what did Bayrou know, and when did he know it?
The release of Le Silence de Bétharram on April 24 could be a bombshell. Co-authored by Alain Esquerre, a spokesperson for the victims, the book reportedly includes testimony from François Bayrou’s own daughter.
The Prime Minister has repeatedly claimed he was unaware of the abuse when his children attended the school. But insiders are not convinced.
“This is really the case that could bring him down (…) He won’t resist if it turns out he actually knew everything,” a former minister told reporter.
“Less because he kept quiet at the time, but because he would have liked to make people believe, today, that he knew nothing. Lying in front of the national representation is fatal. He’s Jérôme Cahuzac.”
François Bayrou’s sworn testimony before the parliamentary commission investigating Bétharram is scheduled for May 14. His account is expected to face sharp scrutiny, especially as a former judge and a former gendarme have offered versions that contradict his. The commission’s final report, expected in June, could have major political repercussions.
Act Three: Allies Circle and Rivals Prepare Their Moves
The potential fallout from the public finance debate and Bétharram affair is already shifting the political landscape. François Bayrou’s weakened position could embolden factions across the spectrum.
Within the governing majority, the LR party is set to elect its new leader shortly after Bayrou’s hearing, with Bruno Retailleau poised to take the helm. His leadership could mean tougher bargaining and more assertive demands on the government.
Meanwhile, the Socialists—who entered a no-confidence truce with Bayrou in January—are holding their congress in Nancy in mid-June. With the pensions conclave wrapping up around the same time, many are predicting a reassessment of that fragile agreement.
Speculation is also swirling around the possibility of a no-confidence vote—or even dissolution. Ironically, François Bayrou’s survival might depend on the National Rally (RN), whose leader Marine Le Pen may not want to risk losing her parliamentary seat in a snap election.
“With the penalty of ineligibility, the National Rally has no interest in taking the risk of bringing down the government,” a Horizons member told HuffPost.
And yet, many within the halls of power believe the moment of reckoning is coming. “In government, everyone is saying that it could happen at some point because it’s less the substance than the political opportunity that prevails over censorship,” the same minister added. “If the government falls, it will be before the summer.”
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